Spot market transactions were sluggish, and tin prices fluctuated downward slightly during the night session [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 4, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) fluctuated downward slightly during the night session, closing at 284,900 yuan/mt, down 0.25% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, stated in an interview with Fox News that the US initially underestimated China's potential in the technology industry, and now China is fully capable of relying on its own industry rather than US technology. According to reports, Huang said, "We underestimated China's ability to accelerate the development of its own technology industry. They now produce millions of artificial intelligence (AI) chips annually." Huang noted that China possesses a large pool of talent, making its competitiveness in AI far beyond external expectations. (2) Following the Dutch government's freezing of all assets and removal of management rights at Nexperia, how is the company's domestic production and operations? A reporter visited Nexperia's packaging and testing factory in Dongguan, Guangdong. During working hours, the company's entrance was crowded with e-bikes, and the open parking lot was nearly full, with many employees coming in and out of the building. An internal factory employee indicated that domestic shipments are still proceeding normally. A downstream customer affected by supply shortages, who has an annual chip procurement value of over 1 billion yuan with Nexperia, came to the site to understand the situation regarding future product supply. (3) TSMC (TSM.N) is again rumored to be raising prices. Recently, it was reported that TSMC has been notifying customers since September that, starting January 2026, advanced processes below 5 nanometers will undergo a four-year consecutive price increase plan, with an average price hike of about 3%-5%. This rare long-term pricing strategy by TSMC reflects strong demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC), further expanding TSMC's pricing power and technological leadership in the global wafer foundry market. On November 3, TSMC responded to inquiries by stating that the company does not comment on market rumors or pricing issues. However, TSMC reiterated that its pricing strategy is always strategy-driven, not opportunity-driven, and the company will continue to work closely with customers to provide value.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening overall in major production areas like Yunnan, and most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have significantly decreased due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices noticeably suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sector consumption.

Spot Market: Trading activity in the spot tin ingot market was relatively sluggish, with downstream enterprises generally exhibiting a fear of high prices, leading to more cautious purchasing behavior. The atmosphere for spot inquiries remained weak, and most end-users only maintained necessary restocking for rigid demand, with no large-scale stockpiling activities observed.

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